Country Report Comoros March 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Exchange rates

The Comorian franc has been loosely pegged to the euro at Cfr492:EUR1 over the past decade, and to the French franc before that. Comoros's foreign-exchange reserves are estimated by the IMF at a comfortable 6.1 months of import cover (well over the benchmark of three months of import cover) and are expected to remain high over the forecast period, aided in part by further interim debt relief. This should allow the currency peg to be sustained at the prevailing rate. The euro is expected to weaken further against the dollar over the forecast period, owing to fundamental fiscal problems in the euro zone. The Comorian franc is therefore forecast to depreciate from Cfr371.5:US$1 in 2010 to Cfr388.9:US$1 in 2011 and Cfr410:US$1 in 2012. There are, however, significant risks of sharp movements in either direction, notably in response to the debt crises in some euro-zone countries.

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