Country Report Comoros March 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Policy trends

The prospects for economic policy reform have improved slightly following the recent improvements in political stability. Much will now depend on whether the transfer of power proceeds peacefully (which looks increasingly likely) and whether Mr Dhoinine's government has the political will and the broad support required to push through long-overdue reforms (which is unlikely, although there are grounds for cautious optimism). Economic management will continue to be supported by the extended credit facility (ECF; 2009-12) with the IMF. The authorities will face pressure to improve the management of parastatals and rein in the civil service wage bill. Some effort will be made to find private-sector partners for the water, electricity and telecommunications utilities but progress on all fronts will be slow. Having reached decision point under the IMF and World Bank's heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) initiative, Comoros is on track to reach HIPC completion point in mid-2012. The government is very unlikely to meet all the conditions for debt relief but some shortfalls are likely to be overlooked, and as long as the current pace of gradual progress is sustained debt relief is likely to be granted. Limited progress is expected in improving the business environment, which the World Bank ranks as one of the worst in the world. Capacity in the civil service is likely to remain weak. Membership of the Franc Zone will remain an important anchor for inflation.

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