Following months of acrimony over the electoral calendar, political stability in Comoros has improved, although risks remain. The elections for Union president and the governors of the three islands have taken place smoothly, in line with the agreement brokered by the African Union (AU) in June 2010. Ikililou Dhoinine-the candidate backed by the current federal president, Ahmed Abdallah Sambi, and his Baobab Coalition-has won the federal election. This has lowered the risks of disputes associated with the date on which the transfer of power will take place; the AU-brokered agreement leaves this open-ended, saying only that Mr Sambi must step down before May 26th 2011 (12 months after his term was originally due to end). Furthermore, Mr Sambi's supporters have won the island elections on both Anjouan and Grande Comore. This could lower the incidence of disputes between the centre and island administrations-a recurring theme in Comorian politics.

Despite these improvements, risks to political stability remain. Although Mr Dhoinine is an ally of Mr Sambi, he may try to assert his independence from the president, which could lead to discord over the timing of the transfer of power. Furthermore, there is a risk of renewed unrest in Mohéli-Comoros's smallest and most marginalised island-from which Mr Dhoinine hails, and to which the presidency is due to rotate for the first time in Comoros's history (under the 2001 constitution, the Union presidency rotates between the three islands-Grand Comore, Anjouan and Mohéli-every four years). Mr Sambi is not popular in Mohéli (the opposition won three out of four seats there in the parliamentary election in late 2009, and an opponent of Mr Sambi was elected governor of Mohéli in late 2010). This has cast doubt on the credibility of the presidential primaries, which were confined to Mohéli, and which delivered a victory for Mr Sambi's favoured candidate. Indeed, Mr Sambi's opponents allege that the elections were marred by fraud. Mr Dhoinine's victory may therefore well be seen in Mohéli as an attempt to circumvent a genuine transfer of power to the island. Although there has been no unrest in Mohéli so far, there is a risk that such unrest could emerge over the next few months.

The risk of a coup-a lingering possibility in a country that has experienced 21 coups and coup attempts since gaining independence in 1975-has declined since August 2010, when the head of the army, General Salim Mohamed Amir, was placed under house arrest for his alleged complicity in the murder of a senior army officer, Lieutenant-Colonel Ayouba. General Amir's relationship with Mr Sambi was notoriously poor and his removal from office a few months before the election may have been devised to mitigate the risk of military intervention. Religious tensions remain a source of concern. There has been no repeat of the attack on the facilities of a Catholic relief organisation in 2007, but there is concern that, with such deep levels of poverty and an ineffectual government, the alienated population may turn towards a radical form of political Islam.