Outlook for 2011-12

Following months of acrimony over the electoral calendar, political stability in Comoros has improved, although risks remain. The elections for federal president and the islands' governors have taken place in line with the deal brokered by the African Union (AU). Ikililou Dhoinine-the candidate backed by the current president, Ahmed Abdallah Sambi, and his Baobab Coalition-has won the federal election. This has lessened the likelihood of disputes over the timing of the transfer of power (which is left open-ended under the AU-brokered deal). However, further unrest could break out in Mohéli-Comoros's smallest and most marginalised island-to which the presidency is due to rotate for the first time since independence. Mr Sambi is unpopular in Mohéli and his ally's victory in an election marred by irregularities may well be seen as an attempt to circumvent a genuine transfer of power to Mohéli. Economic policy will be supported by the extended credit facility (ECF; 2009-12) with the IMF. Comoros is unlikely to meet all of the criteria for debt relief under the heavily indebted poor countries initiative but is nevertheless likely to receive full debt relief in mid-2012. Economic growth is forecast to rise to 2.5% in 2011 and 3% in 2012, supported by foreign investment from the Middle East, debt relief and strong remittances, although this is premised on a peaceful transfer of power.

The political scene

The Constitutional Court has confirmed the results of the elections for the Union president and the islands' governors. Mr Dhoinine has been elected president. Two of the three island governors are pro-Sambi. The government's national disarmament programme has made little progress. The Economist Intelligence Unit's democracy index categorises Comoros as an authoritarian regime.

Economic policy

In January the IMF completed the second review of Comoros's performance under its ECF, declaring that it had been "broadly satisfactory" but noting that numerous fiscal and structural issues remained to be addressed.

The domestic economy

The IMF estimates that real GDP growth strengthened to 2.1% in 2010, the most rapid rate since 2005. A Chinese-funded hospital is to be built in Anjouan.

Foreign trade and payments

A new, three-year fisheries deal has been agreed with the EU. Comoros has been banned from participating in the activities of the African, Caribbean and Pacific group of countries until it pay its membership arrears.