Angola's output is rising once more, after falling as low as 1.57m barrels/day (b/d) in December (December 2010, Economic performance). According to oil traders canvassed in late January, Angolan exports are set to rebound strongly, rising from 1.61m b/d in January to 1.63m b/d in February and 1.73m b/d in March. This reflects the rise in the number of cargoes from 48 in January to a forecast 56 in March, which includes additional cargoes from some of Angola's most prolific fields, notably Girassol, Palanca, Dália, Plutónio, Mondo and Saxi. The expected recovery in production follows the resolution of technical difficulties in ultra-deepwater blocks 18 and 15, as well as some new production coming on stream. According to a statement in mid-January by the minister, José Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos, Angola produced 590m barrels of oil during the first 11 months of 2010, which at an annualised rate was the equivalent of 1.76m b/d. This is similar to the IMF's recent estimate in its review of the SBA of 1.79m b/d and the Economist Intelligence Unit's of 1.78m b/d. With output recovering and new production expected to come on stream over the forecast period, we forecast that output will rise steadily to an average of 1.88m b/d in 2011 and 1.95m b/d in 2012. However, the goal of producing 2m b/d, which was almost achieved for short periods during 2008, is likely to be a moving target, given persistent delays in bringing new deepwater fields on stream and the maturing of existing fields.

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