Strong oil output and rising international prices increased exports to an estimated US$50.7bn in 2010, and they are forecast to rise further, to US$60.8bn in 2011, on the back of surging prices. However, they are forecast to fall back to US$58.6bn in 2012 as falling prices more than offset the start of LNG exports, and will remain broadly stable from then onwards, owing to slowing output growth and moderating prices. With government-led capital investment and domestic consumption set to increase sharply, imports are also forecast to rise strongly, from an estimated US$24.9bn in 2010 to US$32.5bn in 2015. Increased activity in the oil sector will widen the services and income deficits as oil companies increase both profit repatriation and their demand for services. Inflows of current transfers will rise sharply in 2011, supported by disbursements from the IMF's US$1.4bn emergency stand-by facility, pushing the current transfers account into surplus for the first time since the late 1990s. Overall, we estimate that the current-account deficit will narrow to 1.2% of GDP in 2011, driven by the higher trade surplus, before widening to an average of 3.5% of GDP in 2012-15 in line with the narrowing trade surplus.