Despite the recovery in both oil revenue and inflows of foreign direct investment, the BNA's ability to support the kwanza through market intervention will depend on the level of foreign-exchange reserves, which remain vulnerable if international oil prices start to fall again. Pressure on the reserves forced the BNA to loosen the kwanza's unofficial peg to the US dollar in October 2009, resulting in a rapid depreciation from Kz78:US$1 to around Kz92.5:US$1 in mid-2010-a level at which it has remained stable. With pressure on the currency continuing, we forecast that it will depreciate from an average of Kz91.9:US$1 in 2010 to Kz94.2:US$1 in 2011, before starting a modest appreciation, rising steadily to an average of Kz89.5:US$1 in 2014, buoyed by strong foreign-exchange inflows. However, should foreign-exchange reserves start to fall once more, the BNA could be forced to allow a more substantial depreciation.