Outlook for 2011-15

• The ruling party, Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (MPLA), is set to continue its dominance of the political system, by virtue of its control of government resources and overwhelming majority in the National Assembly.
• The long-serving president, José Eduardo dos Santos, is expected to remain in charge at least until the 2012 legislative election.
• The main opposition party, the União Nacional para a Independência Total de Angola, has little chance of winning legislative elections and will focus on proposed municipal elections, which have been delayed.
• With oil revenue and foreign investment set to rise in 2011, real GDP is forecast to rise to a peak of 8.1% in 2012, before moderating to an average of 6.6% in 2013-15 in line with weakening oil output growth.
• Average inflation will remain relatively high throughout the forecast period, although, assuming that price-control adjustments start to address underlying distortions, it is forecast to start falling moderately in 2013-15.
• The current-account deficit will narrow to 1.2% of GDP in 2011, before rising gradually over the remainder of the forecast period in line with the narrowing of the trade surplus, reaching 3.5% of GDP by 2015.

Monthly review

• Angola's main opposition party, União Nacional para a Indepêndencia Total de Angola (UNITA), has revealed that it is unlikely to hold a party congress until after the next legislative elections, owing to lack of funds.
• In late January there were reports in the local press that the Angolan police force was threatening to go on strike over poor pay and working conditions.
• The government has announced that it will repay its remaining US$2.6bn of domestic debt arrears by the end of the first quarter of 2011, although doubts remain over the precise level of government debt.
• The IMF has published its full report of the fourth review of Angola's 27-month stand-by arrangement, noting better macroeconomic stability but urging the government to restrain spending as oil revenues rise sharply.
• Angola's oil output is set to rise strongly in March, to 1.73m barrels/day (b/d), after falling as low as 1.57m b/d in December owing to technical difficulties in several deepwater fields.
• Seven foreign oil companies have been awarded licences in 11 blocks in Angola's pre-salt offshore area, with the national oil company, Sonangol, holding stakes in all of them.