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Country Report Uzbekistan June 2011
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HTMLEconomic performance: The authorities claim that inflation is slowing
The latest official figures indicate that consumer price inflation slowed in the first quarter, contrary to regional and global trends. The State Statistics Committee reports that by end-March consumer prices had risen by 2.7% since end-2010. This equates to year-on-year inflation in the first quarter of 7%, down from 7.3% in the fourth quarter of 2010 and 7.7% in the year-earlier period. Inflation is in line with the official target (of a range of 7-8% for full-year inflation), but its downward trend at a period when global commodity and food prices were rising rapidly raises doubts about the accuracy of official inflation data.
The State Statistics Committee used to report figures on retail prices for food and non-food goods. In conjunction with official figures on retail trade turnover, these data enabled us to gauge the real extent of price rises in the retail sector. Our calculations consistently showed inflation of at least double the official rate. The State Statistics Committee discontinued its publication of food and non-food goods prices in late 2010. Nevertheless, even the data that are available point to greater inflationary pressures than the headline figures suggest. According to official data, industrial producer prices rose by 17.9% year on year in January-March, up from 16.4% in the fourth quarter of 2010. Freight tariffs rose by 30.9% year on year, up from 25% in the previous quarter. Price rises for communications services slowed from 5.3% in the fourth quarter of 2010 to 3.8% in January-March 2011. However, this was partly owing to base effects: postal services prices rose by 15% in the year-earlier period. State-controlled prices for postal, telegraph and fixed-line telephony services remained flat; the increase in overall communications prices was the result of higher costs for mobile telephony, the service on which most of the population relies. Inflation in mobile telephony services stood at 8.5% in January-March, up from 8.4% in October-December 2010 and 8.9% in the first quarter of that year.
| Trade and prices | |||||
| (% change, year on year) | |||||
| 2010 | 2011 | ||||
| 1 Qtr | 2 Qtr | 3 Qtr | 4 Qtr | 1 Qtr | |
| Official consumer prices | 7.7 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 7.0 |
| Food goods prices | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.1 | n/a | n/a |
| Non-food goods prices | 2.8 | 4.1 | 7.0 | n/a | n/a |
| Retail pricesa | 4.6 | 4.8 | 5.1 | n/a | n/a |
| Retail trade turnover, nominal som terms | 31.1 | 31.1 | 29.5 | 30.1 | 18.9 |
| Retail trade turnover, real termsb | 8.3 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 14.7 | 13.1 |
| Implied retail price inflationc | 21.1 | 18.9 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.1 |
| Services prices | 18.7 | 20.5 | 22.0 | n/a | n/a |
| Industrial producer prices | 18.9 | 12.9 | 10.8 | 16.4 | 17.9 |
| Freight tariffs | 13.6 | 22.1 | 17.3 | 25.0 | 30.9 |
| Communications prices | 6.1 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 3.8 |
| Mobile telephony prices | 8.9 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 8.5 |
| a Estimated average weighted according to official data. b Officially reported real growth rates. c Estimates based on Economist Intelligence Unit calculations. | |||||
| Source: Economist Intelligence Unit calculations based on data from the State Statistics Committee. | |||||
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