Economic policy follows three main avenues: a tight fiscal policy, a tight monetary stance and a commitment to gradual economic reform. In practice, the government only pursues the restrictive fiscal stance. The budget, which is not subject to independent scrutiny, has been consistently in surplus in recent years owing to the gas export windfall. This has allowed the government to reduce energy and other utilities subsidies to households while maintaining spending in other areas that prevent unemployment. The government reports that the budget was in surplus amounting to 0.3% of GDP during the first quarter of 2011, following a full-year surplus of 0.3% of GDP in 2010.
Monetary policy is nominally tight because the benchmark interest rate of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, the refinancing rate, is at 12%, almost double the official rate of year-on-year consumer price inflation. However, the true rate of inflation is likely to be much higher, making the refinancing rate negative in real terms. The Central Bank reduced the rate from 14% to 12% at end-2010, despite a rise in inflation even on official figures. The reduction suggests that the government is concerned about a slowdown in economic activity, despite its claims of robust economic growth and a steady rise in bank lending.