The current-account surplus increased in 2010, largely owing to higher prices for Uzbek commodity exports, and to a recovery in remittances as the Russian economy returned to growth. We estimate the current-account surplus in 2010 at US$5.8bn (15% of GDP). Exports of automotives will continue to rise over the forecast period, and cotton prices will remain high in 2011. The pick-up in export revenue will push up the trade surplus in 2011, but this will be partly offset by increased import costs, owing to higher global food prices, as well as by rising demand for consumer goods and for imported inputs into state-funded infrastructure development. Our forecast assumes that gas export prices will remain higher than in the historical period. We expect the current-account surplus to increase in US dollar terms in 2011, to around US$7.5bn. The surplus will fall in 2012 as global prices ease for Uzbekistan's main exports, reducing revenue from sales of gold and cotton.