Official output data are highly suspect and often internally contradictory. We expect that officially reported growth rates will continue to exaggerate the true rate of economic expansion, and that the authorities will report GDP growth rates that are close to the official target. The authorities targeted real GDP growth of 7-8% in 2010, following reported growth of 8.1% in 2009. Official data put growth at 8.5% in 2010, a slight pick-up compared with 2009. The chief external factors affecting economic performance are trends in global commodity prices. Following an estimated rise of around 26% on average in 2010, gold prices are forecast to go up by a further 16% in 2011, before trending down in 2012. In 2011-12 prices for cotton will remain much higher than in 2005-09, following a sharp rebound in 2010. We continue to expect that Uzbekistan will benefit from higher prices than in recent years for its gas exports, after a tripling in prices between 2007 and 2009. Given high global prices for Uzbekistan's main exports, and the solid performance of the Russian economy, we forecast that (officially reported) real GDP will rise by 8.6% in 2011. A continuing expansion in the Russian economy should support real GDP growth of 8.7% in 2012. The economy will also be assisted by rising investment, partly funded from the FRD, but also by foreign direct investment (FDI). Private consumption will suffer from lower inflows of remittances than in 2007-08, but will be sustained by government efforts to increase wages and social payments.