Export-related foreign-exchange inflows, combined with large increases in public-sector wages and benefits, have maintained inflationary pressures. The money supply is forecast to grow rapidly in 2011-12 (albeit at a slower pace than in 2005-07), reflecting our expectation that prices for Uzbek gas and gold exports will remain high relative to their historical levels. In the past the IMF has recommended that the Central Bank of Uzbekistan consider targeting a moderate nominal appreciation of the currency to control inflation and to reduce reliance on indirect monetary policy tools. By contrast, the authorities will continue to prefer to allow the som to depreciate in nominal terms, in an attempt to support exports. However, they are unlikely to allow either a rapid depreciation or to consider a devaluation to bring the som's official value into line with the (much weaker) black-market exchange rate.