Uzbekistan's fiscal position is difficult to assess because of the high degree of opacity in the limited data available. Preliminary official data report a budget surplus of 0.3% of GDP in 2010. Revenue performance has improved in recent years as a result of strong economic growth, high commodity prices and reforms to ease the tax burden. GDP expansion will support revenue growth over the forecast period. A reduction of 1 percentage point in the rates of profit tax and personal income tax from 2011 onwards will help to sustain economic growth and encourage further activity to move out of the shadow economy. However, social spending will continue to rise strongly, and expenditure on defence and internal security measures will remain high. We forecast that the consolidated budget will record small deficits in 2011-12, equal to 0.2-0.3% of GDP. To support infrastructure development and investment in basic industries, the government will also draw on the Fund for Reconstruction and Development (FRD), which is financed by energy export revenue. According to Mr Karimov, the FRD held around US$3.7bn (equal to 11% of GDP) at end-2009.