Relations with the US and the EU had improved in recent years, driven by anti-terrorist initiatives, the regional security agenda, and the desire of some EU states to look for alternative energy sources in Central Asia in order to reduce their reliance on Russia. However, recent statements from Uzbek officials suggest that Uzbekistan will try to seek alliances with countries, such as China, that are less concerned with its poor human rights record. The US is becoming a more prominent partner in anti-terrorism measures, following an agreement in 2009 to allow US non-munitions supplies to Afghanistan to cross Uzbek territory. Relations with Russia will occasionally be troubled, largely because of Russia's desire to increase its military presence in the region (Russia has mooted plans to build a second military base in the Kyrgyz Republic, close to the border with Uzbekistan).

Ties with Uzbekistan's neighbours in Central Asia will occasionally be tense. The unrest in 2010 in the Kyrgyz Republic caused Uzbekistan to close its borders with that country temporarily, and relations will remain strained because of border demarcation disputes, as well as ethnic tensions within the two countries' populations. Ongoing disputes over water and energy supplies will also exacerbate tensions between Uzbekistan and its neighbours. Depending on how the security situation develops in Afghanistan (and, increasingly, in Tajikistan), there is a risk that insurgents in those countries-among them significant numbers of ethnic Uzbeks-could expand their activities into Uzbekistan.