Mr Karimov was last elected in December 2007, and the next presidential election is not due until 2014. A parliamentary election will also be held in that year, although parliament is at best a rubber-stamp body and no opposition parties were allowed to stand for the most recent election, in December 2009. We do not expect any moves towards democratisation over the medium term. The next elections will also be heavily controlled by the authorities, and voters will not be given a meaningful choice. The more significant issue is therefore whether Mr Karimov will remain in office and stand again in 2014. This is a conceivable outcome, if his health permits, and he would be certain to win re-election under such a scenario. However, in view of his advancing age, he is more likely to attempt an orderly handover of power to a trusted successor, whether in 2014 or earlier. Recent moves to amend the constitution, which would make the leader of the Senate (the upper house of parliament) president in the event of the current president's incapacity, could indicate that Mr Karimov is becoming more concerned about the succession, as he appoints the leader of the Senate. If Mr Karimov's health were to start to deteriorate, it is likely that he would speed up the succession process. Were he to die in office without having agreed a succession plan with other members of the elite, this could result in a destabilising power struggle. This could lead to prolonged political upheaval within the country, including mass social unrest, if the authorities were perceived to be temporarily weakened. We view a "palace coup"-whereby other members of the elite forcibly remove Mr Karimov from office-as a less likely scenario. Mr Karimov has so far successfully managed to limit the power of potential rivals, and we expect him to maintain a tight grip over the forecast period.