Country Report Mozambique June 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Election watch

The next national and presidential elections are not due until late 2014. However, before then jockeying for position is likely among potential successors to Mr Guebuza, who cannot serve another term in office. The political opposition will undergo significant change over the next few years, as the previously dominant opposition party, Resistência Nacional de Moçambique (Renamo), is in disarray and may gradually be supplanted by a new challenger, the Movimento Democrático de Moçambique (MDM), to which it is losing talent and support. There are signs of a split emerging within Renamo, with many members growing frustrated with the leadership of Afonso Dhlakama, who is viewed as becoming increasingly out of touch. However, the MDM will have to work hard to capitalise on Renamo's weakness, as the party has yet to make much impact outside Beira, where its leader, Daviz Simango, is mayor.

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