A recovery in merchandise exports, led by commodities, caused the trade surplus to rise in 2010 to US$35.9bn, and we forecast that the surplus will continue to grow in 2011-15, to stand at US$49.7bn in the final year of the period. The deficit on the income account widened in 2010, as foreigners expanded their holdings of Indonesian securities, leading to a rise in interest and dividend payments. The income account will remain in the red throughout the forecast period, as foreigners continue to repatriate earnings while Indonesian investments abroad still earn relatively low returns. Limited employment opportunities at home in the forecast period will force more workers to seek jobs abroad, leading to an increase in inward remittances and thus pushing up the surplus on the transfers account. We expect the current account to record a surplus equivalent to 0.9% of GDP a year on average in the forecast period.