Country Report Indonesia April 2011

Economic performance: Inflation slows as the main rice harvest begins

Inflation slowed in March, with consumer prices rising by 6.7% year on year, down from a rise of 6.8% in February, according to the national data office, Statistics Indonesia. On a month-on-month basis consumer prices fell by 0.3% in March. The slower pace of annual inflation was mainly the result of slower growth in food prices, which rose by 13.6%, compared with an increase of 14.8% in February. The main domestic rice harvest began in March, resulting in lower prices for the country's staple food. The government's decision to waive import duties on imports of rice, along with some other foodstuffs, also contributed to the slower pace of inflation. So too did an appreciation of the rupiah against the US dollar. On a month-on-month basis food prices fell by 1.9% in March, following a fall of 0.3% in February. A recent decision by the government to postpone indefinitely restrictions on the supply of subsidised fuels will also help to manage inflationary pressures in coming months. However, BI now believes that it is back on course to achieve its 4-6% inflation target this year. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose to 4.5% year on year in March, up from 4.4% in February, highlighting the risks of price pressures in these two categories spreading out to affect the prices of other goods and services. The central bank has said that it expects core inflation to accelerate to an annual average of around 5% in 2011.

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