Speculation of a cabinet reshuffle intensified in early March, when the president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, accused a couple of parties of violating the terms of the agreement that established the ruling coalition. Mr Yudhoyono was referring obliquely to the Golkar party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), both of which have frequently opposed the government, despite being members of the coalition. Recently the two parties had defied the president and his Democratic Party (PD) by attempting to launch a full-scale parliamentary enquiry into corruption at the tax office-a move that would have dragged the cabinet and its reformist ministers through months of highly politicised investigation by the House of People's Representatives (DPR, the legislature). The coalition agreement, signed in late 2009 as Mr Yudhoyono began his second term of office, binds together six parties: the PD, Golkar, the PKS, the National Mandate Party (PAN), the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the United Development Party (PPP). Signatories of the agreement are meant to support the government in the legislature as well as in the executive until the end of the DPR's term, in 2014.

Following Mr Yudhoyono's statement, senior members of the PD began to brief the media that a reshuffle was imminent. Discussions were opened with two opposition parties, the Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) and the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), to assess their willingness to join the ruling coalition. According to press reports, the PDI-P wanted three ministerial portfolios, while Gerindra wanted two. The agriculture minister, Suswono, and the communications minister, Tifatul Sembiring, both of whom belong to the PKS, were said to be at greatest risk of replacement, along with the Golkar co-ordinating minister for public welfare, Agung Laksono, and the independent minister for state-owned enterprises, Mustafa Abubakar. The social affairs minister, Salim Segaf Aljufri, and the research and technology minister, Suharna Surapranata, both of whom are also members of the PKS, also faced speculation about their futures.

The PDI-P would be a natural coalition partner for the PD, as both parties share a secular-nationalist political philosophy. But the PDI-P chairwoman, Megawati Soekarnoputri, who is also the previous president, has held an irreconcilable grudge against Mr Yudhoyono ever since he resigned from her cabinet and then defeated her in the 2004 presidential election. Gerindra would be a more awkward partner for the PD. The populist party is little more than a personal political vehicle for its founder, Prabowo Subianto. A son-in-law of the former authoritarian president, Soeharto, Mr Subianto is alleged to have committed serious human-rights abuses during his military career.

It appears that Ms Soekarnoputri's intransigence, as well as Mr Yudhoyono's conciliatory political instincts, have combined to bring the coalition back from the brink of rupture. Given that a power-sharing deal with the PDI-P was proving elusive, Mr Yudhoyono embarked on a series of private meetings with most coalition party leaders. Mr Yudhoyono appears to have reached some form of rapprochement with Golkar, after that party's chairman, Aburizal Bakrie, emerged from a one-to-one meeting with the president to promise continued support for the coalition. In late March Mr Yudhoyono told the cabinet that reshuffle speculation was not constructive and that he would make changes only when left to do so without pressure from interested parties. But the president snubbed the PKS, refusing to meet with that party's chairman, Luthfi Hasan Ishaaq, leaving the party to look increasingly isolated.