Country Report Indonesia April 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: Monetary policy

Monetary tightening will continue during the remainder of 2011, following BI's decision on February 4th to raise its main policy interest rate, the BI rate, by 25 basis points, to 6.75%. The rate rise, the first since October 2008, signalled the start of the process of "normalising" monetary policy. Previously BI had left the rate at 6.5%, the lowest level since it was introduced in 2005, owing to concerns about the effect that a widening interest rate differential with major global economies would have on capital inflows (given that rates in such countries are likely to remain low). Continued concerns about capital inflows, as well as signs that government intervention has succeeded in stabilising inflation, mean that BI's governors will raise interest rates only slowly. Although BI waited until February to raise rates, it began to tighten monetary policy in September 2010, when it increased the commercial banking sector's primary rupiah reserve requirement to 8%, from 5% previously. In March 2011 BI raised the banking sector's US dollar reserve requirement to 5%, from 1% previously. A further rise, to 8%, is scheduled for June. Interest rates will continue to rise in 2012 before stabilising in 2013-15.

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