Country Report Indonesia April 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: Policy trends

Reforms aimed at addressing the shortcomings of Indonesia's business environment will move forward in a stop-start manner, reflecting the conflicting views on reform that exist within the governing coalition. The anti-corruption drive will continue, but the Anti-Corruption Commission (KPK) will face constant opposition, as will other statutory bodies charged with tackling graft. Several changes, including reform of the country's restrictive labour laws and removal of energy subsidies, may not prove politically feasible. Reform of the inefficient civil service, which was cited by Mr Yudhoyono as a priority for his second term, is making only slow progress. The government has, however, submitted draft legislation to parliament on land acquisitions. If passed, the measure will make it easier for the state to acquire land for development purposes, thus removing a major bottleneck obstructing much-needed improvements to infrastructure.

As a consequence of the inability of the civil service to spend fully the funds allocated to it, the Indonesian government generally fails to operate an effective counter-cyclical fiscal policy, and macroeconomic management therefore has to be achieved primarily through monetary policy. Bank Indonesia (BI, the central bank) will tighten policy by raising interest rates in 2011 in an attempt to contain the inflationary pressures generated by strong economic growth. In February BI tightened restrictions introduced in June 2010 on foreign purchases of short-term central bank bonds in order to maintain the stability of the rupiah. Although the authorities remain eager to attract long-term foreign investment, the potential for instability to be generated by sudden changes in investor sentiment was judged too great a risk to be ignored.

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