According to data from the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT, the central bank), annual consumer price inflation accelerated to 9.8% in December 2010, from 5.2% at the start of the year. Prices for food goods rose by 13.4% year on year in December, with prices for non-food items rising by 5.5% and services prices rising by 4%. Month-on-month inflation for December was 0.9%, with food prices rising by 1.1%, non-food prices up by 0.8% and services prices up by 0.4%. Over 2010 as a whole inflation averaged 6.4%, according to official statistics.
Around 60% of goods imported into Tajikistan come by rail via Uzbekistan. According to Vladimir Sobkalov, the deputy head of Tajikistan Railways, the rail blockade imposed by Uzbekistan and the 10% increase in transit fees implemented by that country contributed to imported inflationary pressures. In addition, in June 2010 Russia imposed extra duties on oil products exported to Tajikistan. However, the global rise in fuel and food prices is likely to have had the greatest inflationary impact. Prices of imported fuel and lubricants have increased by as much as 45% in recent months. Consumer price inflation has also severely affected more remote areas of the country, such as the mountainous Badakhshan province, where transportation costs have been particularly high.
Main macroeconomic indicators | ||||||||||||
Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
Industrial output (% change, year on year) | ||||||||||||
2008 | -16.1 | -13.3 | -0.9 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 3.1 | -2.5 | -9.5 | -14.2 | -1.8 |
2009 | -5.0 | -8.2 | -11.4 | -23.0 | -17.4 | -14.8 | -9.1 | -2.3 | 1.2 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 5.8 |
2010 | 3.2 | 26.8 | 18.9 | 15.1 | 8.5 | -0.5 | 4.3 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 13.6 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
Registered unemployment ('000) | ||||||||||||
2008 | 49.3 | 49.9 | 52.7 | 52.8 | 50.9 | 49.4 | 48.3 | 48.2 | 47.1 | 46.2 | 45.7 | 43.6 |
2009 | 43.4 | 44.3 | 44.8 | 44.6 | 44.2 | 44.5 | 44.8 | 45.0 | 44.4 | 45.3 | 46.5 | 44.5 |
2010 | 44.8 | 45.9 | 46.7 | 47.5 | 47.7 | 47.7 | 48.0 | 48.5 | 47.9 | 47.8 | 48.7 | – |
Consumer prices (% change, month on month) | ||||||||||||
2008 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | -0.3 | -0.8 |
2009 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
2010 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
Consumer pricesa (% change, year on year) | ||||||||||||
2008 | 20.0 | 19.9 | 20.3 | 21.9 | 24.1 | 25.3 | 25.7 | 26.8 | 20.1 | 17.9 | 14.2 | 11.8 |
2009 | 11.1 | 10.7 | 10.3 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.9 |
2010 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 9.8 |
Industrial producer prices (% change, month on month) | ||||||||||||
2008 | 2.7 | 6.7 | 7.7 | -0.1 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 | -4.4 | -3.2 | -7.5 | -4.4 | -8.1 |
2009 | 0.8 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 8.8 | -1.4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 7.1 |
2010 | 0.8 | -2.4 | 3.3 | 2.1 | -4.5 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
Industrial producer pricesa (% change, year on year) | ||||||||||||
2008 | 16.6 | 20.6 | 30.4 | 28.6 | 32.4 | 36.1 | 32.8 | 26.5 | 21.9 | 7.6 | 1.7 | -5.4 |
2009 | -7.2 | -13.5 | -19.9 | -15.2 | -11.6 | -8.3 | -6.9 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 19.1 | 27.4 | 48.5 |
2010 | 48.7 | 45.8 | 51.0 | 45.7 | 29.8 | 27.1 | 23.5 | 12.3 | 20.2 | 26.6 | 29.4 | 27.3 |
Average gross monthly wage (S; end-period) | ||||||||||||
2008 | 204.3 | 215.5 | 222.3 | 220.0 | 221.5 | 238.6 | 237.8 | 228.1 | 264.0 | 267.5 | 263.3 | 333.0 |
2009 | 284.8 | 288.8 | 311.9 | 284.8 | 277.2 | 315.8 | 301.0 | 286.9 | 300.8 | 311.6 | 308.2 | 387.9 |
2010 | 348.9 | 354.6 | 368.2 | 345.3 | 329.6 | 373.2 | 348.1 | 337.9 | 374.6 | 359.0 | 384.1 | – |
Average gross monthly wage (end-period; % change, year on year) | ||||||||||||
2008 | 38.1 | 45.0 | 41.7 | 39.8 | 42.8 | 30.9 | 50.5 | 46.4 | 44.0 | 47.1 | 43.1 | 46.7 |
2009 | 39.4 | 34.0 | 40.3 | 29.5 | 25.2 | 32.4 | 26.6 | 25.8 | 13.9 | 16.5 | 17.0 | 16.5 |
2010 | 22.5 | 22.8 | 18.0 | 21.3 | 18.9 | 18.2 | 15.6 | 17.8 | 24.5 | 15.2 | 24.6 | – |
Average gross monthly wage (US$; end-period) | ||||||||||||
2008 | 58.94 | 62.34 | 64.49 | 64.20 | 64.18 | 69.56 | 69.39 | 66.64 | 77.28 | 78.56 | 77.37 | 97.45 |
2009 | 80.94 | 77.51 | 82.61 | 73.67 | 66.59 | 71.84 | 68.50 | 65.35 | 68.53 | 71.21 | 70.88 | 88.74 |
2010 | 79.81 | 81.20 | 84.31 | 79.06 | 75.44 | 85.22 | 79.43 | 77.11 | 85.48 | 81.91 | 87.38 | – |
a Economist Intelligence Unit calculations based on monthly data from State Statistics Committee. | ||||||||||||
Sources: National Bank of Tajikistan; State Statistics Committee; Economist Intelligence Unit calculations. |
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