Country Report Tajikistan March 2011

The domestic economy: Real GDP rises by 6.5% in 2010

According to the State Statistics Committee (SSC), real GDP grew by 6.5% in 2010, compared with 3.4% in 2009. Much of the pick-up in growth was owing to an increase in industrial production and a rise in global market prices for Tajikistan's main export commodities of aluminium and cotton fibre. Industrial output rose by 9.7% in 2010, and output of energy rose by 5.5%. The country generated 16.4bn kwh of electricity in 2010, 2% higher than in 2009. The authorities also reported the mining of 141,700 tonnes of bituminous coal, up by 1%; 58,700 tonnes of lignite, up by 70%; and the extraction of 27,200 tonnes of oil and 21m cu metres of natural gas, up by 3.3% and 5.4% year on year, respectively.

According to the SSC, manufacturing accounted for 41.6% of GDP in 2010 (compared with 40.8% in 2009), services accounted for 47.9% (compared with 48.7% in 2009) and taxes accounted for 10.5% (unchanged from 2009). Retail trade turnover rose by 10.2% year on year in volume terms. The acceleration in GDP growth was also attributable to the resurgence of remittances from migrant workers abroad, which form the economic mainstay of many Tajik households. After a fall of more than 30% in 2009, remittances increased by an estimated 18% in 2010. The forcible sale of shares in the Roghun hydroelectricity power project (see Economic policy), which by end-2010 had generated around US$185m (around 30% of the original sales target), appears not to have significantly dampened consumer demand. The increase in remittance inflows is likely to have compensated for household income lost to Roghun share purchases.

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