Tajikistan remains dependent on sales of aluminium, cotton and electricity for most of its export revenue. Aluminium exports rose in 2010, following a sharp fall in 2009 that partly reflected a cut in output because of power supply problems and lower external demand. Revenue from aluminium exports will rise in 2011, owing to a further increase in global prices. Higher output of raw cotton, and higher global prices, will boost revenue from sales of cotton fibre. Export revenue is therefore forecast to continue rising in 2011, before falling in 2012 as global commodity prices trend downwards. Although foreign investment into Tajikistan has increased in recent years, it is concentrated in infrastructure and energy, and these projects are not expected to boost export revenue significantly until towards the end of the forecast period, or even later.

Higher global prices for fuel and food, combined with higher domestic demand, will push up import costs in 2011, although a more stable somoni will limit pressure on import costs. Higher inflows of remittances from migrant workers in Russia and Kazakhstan will also boost import volumes, by raising households' purchasing power for imported food and consumer goods. These trends will be offset by higher export revenue. We therefore forecast an overall current-account surplus of US$765m (11.6% of GDP) in 2011, compared with US$400m (7.1% of GDP) in 2010. We expect the surplus to fall in 2012, to 5.5% of GDP, as import costs remain high but cotton and aluminium prices fall, lowering export revenue.