A rise in remittances from Tajiks working abroad in 2011-12 will strengthen the support base for the local currency, the somoni. However, this will be offset by a strengthening of the US dollar. The somoni will therefore weaken in 2011-12. However, it will be more stable than in 2009, when it depreciated sharply, particularly in January-June. We forecast that the somoni will be around 0.9% weaker in annual average terms in 2011 than in 2010. By end-2012 we expect that it will be trading at S4.46:US$1, compared with S4.39:US$1 at end-2010, a weakening of around 1.5%.