Trends in global food and energy prices will continue to influence inflation in Tajikistan, as the country is forced to import much of its food and fuel needs. Global raw materials prices also affect inflation, as infrastructure construction necessitates capital goods imports. Trends in global commodity prices had an inflationary impact in 2010, and rising global prices, particularly for fuel and foodstuffs, will also push up inflation in 2011. We forecast average annual inflation of 9% in 2011, compared with 6.4% in 2010. Inflation will fall slightly in 2012, to 7%, as global inflationary pressures abate. Together with external influences on its prices, Tajikistan regularly experiences adverse weather conditions, which puts upward pressure on prices; such an eventuality therefore poses an upside risk to our inflation forecast.