Foreign policy in the immediate term will focus on events in the Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan. The authorities will be keen to prevent any spread of violence from the Kyrgyz Republic into Tajikistan. Relations with Uzbekistan will centre on disputes over Tajikistan's plans to expand its hydropower sector, which Uzbekistan fears will affect irrigation for its cotton crop. There have been increasingly frequent, albeit small, demonstrations in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan recently, with Uzbeks protesting over pollution from the aluminium smelter in Tajikistan, and Tajiks angry at what they see as a deliberate economic blockade, with freight trains destined for Tajikistan being held up at the Uzbek border (although this now appears to have largely ended). These disputes risk flaring up into open ethnic conflict, particularly in view of the outbreak of ethnic violence in the Kyrgyz Republic. Tajikistan has a minority ethnic Uzbek population numbering around 15% of the total population.

Military and economic relations with Russia will continue to strengthen. A dispute with Rusal, a Russian company, over an important hydroelectricity project at Roghun revealed some tensions in the bilateral relationship. However, Russia has a permanent military base in Tajikistan and is likely to remain keen to increase its investment in the country's energy sector, although investment plans may suffer delays as a consequence of the international financial crisis. Russia will also maintain substantial political leverage over Tajikistan, as an estimated 1m-1.5m Tajik citizens work in Russia. The forcible return of even a small proportion to Tajikistan could entail serious political and economic difficulties for Tajikistan, and thus for Mr Rahmon's regime. The influence of China, which has become a significant lender to Tajikistan, is also likely to grow. Chinese credit and firms are increasingly involved in infrastructure schemes in the country. Tajikistan will simultaneously pursue close ties with the US, particularly with regard to securing financial and security assistance. However, relations with Tajikistan's immediate neighbours, particularly Uzbekistan, will remain tense, owing to disagreements over border issues, and access to electricity and water resources.