Mr Rahmon was last elected in November 2006; the next presidential election is due in 2013. We therefore expect that he will remain in power for the rest of the forecast period. Although in theory Mr Rahmon is ineligible to stand for another term, the constitutional legitimacy of his current term is questionable, and constitutional term limits are likely to be amended, or ignored, to allow his continuing rule. He is likely to stand for, and win, re-election in 2013. There appear to be no significant threats to his rule from within the elite, and opposition voices are sidelined. Nor does he appear to have any significant health issues, and his relative youth (he is 58) tells in his favour. The one significant threat would be a deterioration in the security situation to such an extent that members of the elite-probably from the security services-deemed that he could no longer control the polity. This might lead to a "palace coup", resulting in his ouster. A rise in social unrest could also provoke such a scenario. However, we view both outcomes as unlikely.

A parliamentary election is not due until 2015, but we expect it to follow the trend of recent elections, whereby the success of opposition parties will be limited by administrative control over the election campaign, a lack of media freedoms, and irregularities in the vote-count. We do not expect any moves towards democratisation over the medium term.