Boosting economic growth through rural recapitalisation and the modernisation of agriculture is one of the pillars of Vision 2025, an economic and social policy document that the president, Pierre Nkurunziza, says will guide his period in office. Mr Nkurunziza launched the Vision 2025 project in 2007, with a document emerging in late 2010 that was adopted by the Senate on December 27th. The document has still to be debated and voted on in the National Assembly, but is so closely associated with Mr Nkurunziza that it is unlikely to encounter much resistance. Burundi's Vision 2025 consciously mimics Rwanda's Vision 2020, which was adopted by the government there in 1999 and which has since achieved considerable success in focusing economic decision making and in mobilising donor support. Vision 2025 imagines a country with "strong, visionary leadership ... presiding over a radical change in national mentality and behaviour", enabling the restoration of national unity, economic growth, food security, and an end to the scourges of illiteracy and unemployment. The document expresses the intent to increase GDP per head from its current estimated level of US$137 to US$720 by 2025, and to reduce the poverty rate from the 67% that the government says it stands at today, to 50%. In addition to economic growth, the other pillars on which the Vision 2025 strategy rests are:

• good governance, including the promotion of reconciliation;
• the development of human capital, particularly through education;
• regional integration;
• "aggressive" policies to lower the rate of population growth;
• the reconstruction of "social cohesion";
• a "voluntary" process of villagisation and urbanisation, aimed at boosting the rate of urbanisation from an estimated 10% currently, to 40%; and
• partnership with civil society, the private sector and donors.

Vision 2025 appears to require for its successful implementation a strong, resourced state brimming with idealistic and competent bureaucrats, who engage creatively with an enthusiastic population for the greater good. The reality, however, is somewhat different. State capacity has been devastated by years of conflict, corruption and, more recently, rapid affirmative action that has catapulted young CNDD-FDD loyalists into senior leadership positions throughout the civil service. There is scant indication from the political elite of its interest in reconciliation or partnership (see The political scene). Still, there is much in Vision 2025 that is sensible and worth attempting. Rural recapitalisation, regional integration and improving the education system would all help the country. The average population growth of 2.9% per year between 2002 and 2009 is also a concern, although the prospect of the government engaging in family planning is potentially alarming. This will probably be the main difficulty with Vision 2025. The document depicts a much kinder, more benign state than the one Burundians, and development partners, encounter. In order for the vision to be realised, its call for reconciliation, partnership and reconstruction will need to be accompanied by a visible change to the style of governance.