Imports to Burundi typically exceed exports by roughly 400%, and there appears to be no prospect of this ratio altering significantly over the forecast period. We expect tea and coffee production volumes to rise during 2011-12, but this will be offset by a fall in the international price of tea. Recorded earnings from "other primary products", which include gold smuggled in from the DRC, will fall, because although plenty of gold is still coming into Burundi, more and more of it is also being smuggled out of the country and thus going unrecorded.

Increased global competition for markets, which is pushing down prices, and the introduction of the EAC, which is reducing regional tariff and non-tariff barriers, will mitigate the rise in import costs during the forecast period. Burundi's services deficit is expected to widen as increased trade volumes result in higher freight costs. Current transfers, supported by donor aid, will counteract this slightly and we forecast that the current-account deficit will edge down from 10.7% of GDP in 2010 to 10.6% of GDP in 2011 and 8.3% of GDP in 2012.