A continued peace dividend, which appears increasingly unlikely, would go a long way towards ensuring that economic growth remains relatively robust over the forecast period. The manufacturing sector is expected to continue on its modest growth path, but textile output has collapsed and energy shortages will remain a significant problem. Nonetheless, we expect modest increases in the production of beer and household consumer goods. In its role as a regional trading hub, Bujumbura should benefit from continued stability, and further integration with the EAC will prompt growth in the wholesale and retail sectors. Agricultural production is expected to improve, although weather patterns are uncertain and production is vulnerable to erratic rain patterns. Overall, we expect the main drivers of economic growth to be increased food production and higher investment, and forecast real GDP growth of 4.5% in both 2011 and 2012. The main threats to this are a return to political instability, particularly if the FNL resumes its armed struggle, and possible poor performance from the agricultural sector because of inadequate rains.