International donors were deeply unimpressed with the opposition party boycott of the electoral process after the May local elections, and have thus far been inclined to support the government of Mr Nkurunziza. However, this will change if the administration's treatment of its opponents continues in the openly hostile manner seen since the elections. We expect donors to proceed cautiously, and disburse funds gradually in reaction to events.

Burundi's deepening integration into the East African Community (EAC), which manifested itself in July 2010 through the introduction of a common market protocol and further in December when Mr Nkurunziza assumed the rotating EAC chairmanship, will continue to improve regional political and economic ties. The South African government worked hard to ensure the success of the political transition that brought Mr Nkurunziza to power, and will continue to exert influence despite the withdrawal of its troops from the country. We anticipate that Burundi will sustain its current level of troop deployment to the African Union (AU) peacekeeping mission in Somalia over the forecast period, despite further loss of life suffered by the Burundian military in Somalia, and threats against the country from Somalia's Al-Shabaab militia.