The president, Pierre Nkurunziza, of the Conseil national pour la défense de la démocratie-Forces pour la défense de la démocratie (CNDD-FDD), was last year re-elected unopposed for another five-year term. Meanwhile his party secured clear victories in local and legislative elections, and therefore their continued domination of the political scene seems assured for the forecast period and beyond. However, since most opposition parties boycotted the 2010 election cycle and several of their leaders have since gone into hiding for fear of persecution, there are still uncertainties about the legitimacy of Mr Nkurunziza and his party's rule.

In this context, it has been helpful to Mr Nkurunziza that the predominantly Tutsi Union pour le progrès national (Uprona), after some hesitation, decided to contest the legislative elections, despite withdrawing its candidate from the presidential election, and is now participating in the government, albeit in a bad tempered manner. This has enhanced the credibility of the electoral process and Mr Nkurunziza's victory, and also bolstered the president's argument, particularly internationally, that other opposition parties are just bad losers. Nonetheless, the decision by the CNDD-FDD's major-and predominantly Hutu-rivals, Forces nationales de libération (FNL) and Front pour la démocratie au Burundi (Frodebu), to disengage from the electoral process, and the subsequent harassment of their party members, will continue to undermine Mr Nkurunziza's credibility as president domestically, particularly in provinces where these two parties are strong, such as Bururi and the capital, Bujumbura, and in the Great Lakes region as a whole.

A minority FNL faction, apparently sponsored by the CNDD-FDD, and hastily recognised last August by the government as the true leaders of the party, wants the FNL to resume participation in the political process. Yet the faction, headed by Emmanuel Mubiro, is unlikely to win the loyalty of the party's rank-and-file, many of whom appear inclined instead to resume armed struggle. Agathon Rwasa, who insists he is still the FNL president, fled the country last June, apparently to eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), from where he has been covertly recruiting combatants. Both he and the government deny this is happening, but the Economist Intelligence Unit anticipates instead that their conflict will come into the open. Renewed armed struggle from Mr Rwasa's FNL will probably not pose much of a threat to the government in the short term, particularly since the FNL no longer enjoys the support it once had from the Tanzanian government.

A renewal of hostilities between the government and the FNL will further harden the former's stance towards opponents in general, which has already taken a sharp turn for the worse since the election. We anticipate further arrests of opposition party and civil-society activists, which will put Uprona under intense pressure to pull out of the government. Should Uprona do so, it would be a blow to Mr Nkurunziza and the CNDD-FDD, although it remains to be seen whether Uprona can use this threat to exercise any significant leverage. Another critical issue will be the position of the courts. Burundi's judiciary is generally pliant to the executive, but occasionally digs its heels in and acquits political opponents of the government. The way the courts handle the many trials of opposition party activists and journalists that are heading their way will play an important role in determining the extent to which the government succeeds in imposing its ongoing restriction of political space in the country.

Alexis Sinduhije of the Mouvement pour la sécurité et la démocratie has, like Mr Rwasa, fled the country, and rumours are circulating in Bujumbura-denied by Mr Sinduhije-that his party may also take up arms against the government, possibly in alliance with the FNL. Moreover, some senior CNDD-FDD figures have accused members of the armed forces who came from the previous, Tutsi-dominated Forces armées du Burundi (FAB) of being sympathetic to this alleged rebellion. Forner FAB officers have denied the charge. The CNDD-FDD first came to power in 2005, and since then ex-FAB members of the armed forces, who fought against the party when it was still a guerrilla army, have largely distanced themselves from the country's political struggles. If the position of the former FAB members has changed, or if the CNDD-FDD has decided that the time has come to take on the old FAB, or both, this would also not bode well for the country's security prospects over the forecast period.