Outlook for 2011-12

The clean sweep in 2010 of municipal, presidential, and legislative elections by the ruling Conseil national pour la défense de la démocratie-Forces pour la défense de la démocratie (CNDD-FDD) and the incumbent president, Pierre Nkurunziza, points to their continued dominance. However, the turbulent electoral period has led to heightened tensions between the government and opposition parties, including the Forces nationales de libération (FNL), which appears to be re-arming in eastern areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) for renewed violent struggle against the government. Despite political uncertainty, the Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts real GDP growth of 4.5% in both 2011 and 2012, driven by agricultural production and investment.

The political scene

The National Assembly elected the country's first ever ombudsman on November 12th. The selection of an ombudsman may have been welcomed, given that the position had been vacant since it was created by the Arusha peace accords in 2009. However, opposition parties and civil society groups were outraged at the selection of a ruling party loyalist to the position, which is meant to act as a check on the government's abuse of power. The selection of a mute ombudsman is particularly worrying, because the government has continued it's harassment of the opposition. Human Rights Watch and various local non-governmental organisations (NGOs) documented several cases of politically-motivated violence and arrests of opposition activists and journalists. For its part the government has denied claims that opposition political groups have returned to armed struggle, and has instead insisted that it is dealing with pockets of banditry. Meanwhile, the UN has significantly reduced the capacity of its office in Burundi, now called the UN Office in Burundi (BNUD).

Economic policy

The government adopted the 2011 budget in December, which anticipates a 19% increase in spending and an optimistic 26.4% rise in domestic revenue. Prior to the adoption of the budget an IMF mission conducted a review of the economic reform programme, which it described as "broadly satisfactory".

The domestic economy

After an extended delay, a new semi-autonomous revenue agency, the Office Burundais des Recettes, has started operations.

Foreign trade and payments

The Belgian government and the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) have announced a joint aid package for agriculture worth US$129m.