Although Mr Matambo indicated that negotiations over civil servants' salaries in 2011/12 had only just commenced, it is clear that the government was planning to impose a third year without any cost-of-living adjustment. For their part-despite benefiting from a 10% salary adjustment in 2010 due to changed working conditions under revised public service legislation (November 2010, Economic performance)-the public sector unions have responded angrily, warning of an early recourse to strike action should their demands for a 16% increase not be heeded. Furthermore, the government's forecast for a return to a balanced budget in 2012/13 appears to rest on the assumption that civil service wages would not rise in the next fiscal year either, and this may further embolden unions. Beyond the issue of the pay increase, the unions are anxious for the government to take the recent introduction of collective bargaining over salaries more seriously, moving away from the previous framework under which salary adjustments were simply announced with minimum consultation.

Most opposition leaders have been quick to line up in support of the unions (Guma Moyo, a prominent BMD MP, being a notable exception), although public opinion may be more attuned to the government line that scarce funds should be directed towards the poor. The capacity of the unions to undertake strike action-which is very uncommon in Botswana-may also be complicated by the recent High Court ruling upholding an earlier decision to de-register the Botswana Federation of Public Sector Unions (October 2010, The political scene), an alliance of five leading unions and the main instigator of the planned industrial action, thus depriving it of its rights and immunities. Moreover, Mr Matambo, in a subsequent speech to parliament on February 24th, clearly painted the issue as a choice between retrenchment and wage control. Faced with the alternative of lay-offs, the unions will probably acquiesce to the freeze in 2011/12.