According to the 2011/12 budget, plans are on track to eliminate the budget deficit-which the government currently estimates to be 10% of GDP-by 2012/13, while also aligning spending closer to 30% of GDP, which both the IMF and the World Bank have suggested is necessary to underpin long-term budget sustainability. However, this would necessitate significant expenditure cuts in real terms: assuming 7% inflation, forecast expenditure in 2012/13 would have to fall by 16% in real terms. According to the budget, this will be achieved mainly through scaling down the development programme as current capital investments are completed. However, it remains to be seen whether other crucial capital investments, such as additional power generation capacity to plug the country's forecast supply shortfall in 2016, can be delayed or successfully moved off-budget through public-private partnerships. In order to erode the value of recurrent expenditure in real terms, the Ministry of Finance and Development Planning has frozen various recurrent budget lines, such as travel, hoping that departments will prioritise value-added activities for themselves. However, the government will struggle to contain recurrent expenditure in the face of demands for higher wages from the civil service and the need to increase spending on infrastructure maintenance. The forecast return to a balanced budget in 2012/13 also rests crucially on revenue assumptions. The formula for distributing customs revenue in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) is currently being reviewed (February 2011, Economic policy). Although the formula is unlikely to change during 2011/12, as the smaller countries in the region seek to delay the inevitable reductions in their allocation, the Botswana government nevertheless appears overoptimistic in projecting a 41% increase in SACU revenue.