Party politics will continue to dominate the political picture over the forecast period. The largest party in Botswana politics, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which has governed the country since it gained independence in 1966, is facing a challenge from a splinter party that broke away in April 2010. The new party, the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD), benefited initially from a series of defections from the BDP, as well as support from independents. However, its momentum has slowed, and there is a growing perception (including within its own ranks) that the BMD's relentless attacks on the president, Ian Khama, are coming at the expense of promoting its own policies. The party had been hoping for a boost from its inaugural national congress, set for March, although it appears increasingly likely that the congress will expose personal rivalries among the leadership.

At the same time, the prospects for unity in the BDP have improved now that Mr Khama appears willing to be more accommodating towards supporters of Barataphathi (a faction within the BDP, many of whose members left to form the BMD) who have remained loyal to the party. Mr Khama has recently undertaken a limited cabinet reshuffle, and the appointment of Ponatshego Kedikilwe, formerly a leading member of Barataphathi, as acting vice-president will bolster party unity. However the president's preference for a "compromise list" to head off a potentially divisive election for the BDP central committee in July indicates the extent of his concern that factionalism in the party could erupt again.