Country Report Philippines April 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: Monetary policy

After leaving policy interest rates unchanged, at record lows since July 2009, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP, the central bank) raised overnight borrowing and lending rates by 25 basis points each, to 4.25% and 6.25% respectively, at its most recent policy meeting on March 24th. The BSP's monetary board will continue to raise interest rates for the remainder of the year to prevent inflation from exceeding the upper limit of its 3.5-5.5% target range. Although the central bank will want to avoid sharp rises in interest rates, it may be forced to tighten monetary policy more aggressively than it would like to control inflation. The BSP was one of the slowest among the major central banks in South-east Asia to raise interest rates in recent months. The persistent fiscal deficit will keep market interest rates high and may crowd out private borrowers.

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