Country Report Philippines April 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: Policy trends

The main policy challenge for Mr Aquino's administration during the early part of the forecast period will be to show that it is committed to improving the public finances. The budget has been in deficit for the past 13 years, and the ratio of public debt to GDP is among the highest in South-east Asia, at 55.4% in 2010. Mr Aquino's administration has abandoned the goal of balancing the budget, arguing that a deficit is unavoidable if public services are to be improved, but the administration is targeting a gradual reduction in the deficit, to 2% of GDP by 2013. The government is seeking to upgrade the country's infrastructure through partnerships between the public and private sectors. Mr Aquino aims to have established around 80 such partnerships, with aggregate investment capital of P740bn (US$16.8bn), by the end of his presidency in 2016. In March the government announced details of five of at least ten projects expected to be put out to tender in 2011. Private investors have previously been deterred from becoming involved in all but the most commercially attractive projects by the government's refusal to offer guarantees. However, Mr Aquino has said that he is prepared to provide such assurances in some circumstances-a policy that will add to the government's contingent liabilities.

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