The resounding victory achieved by Benigno Aquino in the May 2010 presidential election-he beat the second-placed candidate, Joseph Estrada, a former president, by a record margin of more than 5m votes-suggests that the Philippines is on course for a period of relative political stability. The president serves a six-year term and, under the terms of the constitution, cannot be removed from office except through impeachment. But it remains to be seen whether Mr Aquino has what it takes to survive as president in the febrile atmosphere of Philippine politics. Mr Aquino has yet to show that his election victory reflected his own abilities as a leader rather than those of his mother, Corazon Aquino, a former president whose death in August 2009 was mourned by millions of people-providing Mr Aquino with the perfect platform from which to launch his own bid for the presidency. Mr Aquino's attempts to investigate corruption alleged to have occurred under his predecessor, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, have already made enemies of those who benefitted from the patronage of the previous administration. Ms Macapagal Arroyo and her allies will use what influence they still have in Congress (the legislature), the Supreme Court and other state institutions to defend their interests, even if that means destabilising the current administration.

One of Mr Aquino's first acts as president was to pass an executive order establishing a "truth commission" to investigate the previous administration. But in early December the Supreme Court ruled by ten votes to five that the order was unconstitutional. The justice minister, Leila de Lima, said that the court's ruling showed that Ms Macapagal Arroyo's controversial appointment of an ally, Renato Corona, as chief justice in the final month of her term was "paying off". Thwarted in their attempts to investigate Ms Macapagal Arroyo herself, Mr Aquino's allies in the legislature are attempting to pick off the previous president's allies. On March 23rd the House of Representatives (the lower house) voted overwhelmingly to impeach the official ombudsman, Merceditas Gutierrez, for the failure of her office to secure any convictions in relation to cases of the previous administration's alleged corruption. Ms Gutierrez's conviction by the Senate (the upper house) would remove one of Ms Macapagal Arroyo's closest allies from office. The move could also revive Mr Aquino's campaign to investigate the previous president herself.

Although Mr Aquino can count on the support of the House of Representatives, only four of the Senate's 23 members currently belong to his Liberal Party (LP). The president will therefore have to work hard to win the support of the upper house for his policies and, in particular, for the support of the 16 Senators (a two-thirds majority) whose votes will be required to convict Ms Gutierrez. So far the administration has been successful in pushing through important pieces of legislation, such as the 2011 budget, which was passed in Congress in mid-December. But Ms Gutierrez's trial is likely to prove far more divisive. It will also distract Senators from the important task of passing legislation aimed at boosting investor confidence in the country.

At a time when the impeachment proceedings are likely to ratchet up political tensions, the president must be careful not to antagonise the armed forces. Ms Macapagal Arroyo faced a series of military mutinies during her presidency, but she survived these with the support of the army's most senior generals. In an early attempt to win the backing of the armed forces, Mr Aquino has offered to pardon all those implicated in the mutinies against his predecessor. However, he may come to regret this decision: pardoning those who rebelled against the previous commander-in-chief will do nothing to prevent errant officers from taking up arms again. Civil-military relations have already been strained by Senate hearings into Ms Gutierrez's role in investigating high-level corruption in the military, including claims that army funds were siphoned off into a "retirement" fund for senior generals. The risk of a coup should not be overstated, but political divisions could prove destabilising if they permeate through the ranks.

Security risks will persist throughout the forecast period. Despite years of negotiations, Ms Macapagal Arroyo failed to finalise a peace agreement with the main separatist movement on the southern island of Mindanao, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). However, the rebel organisation responded positively to Mr Aquino's election victory and formal negotiations between the two sides resumed in early February. But serious obstacles to a peace agreement remain. Any attempt, for example, by Mr Aquino to reinstate the terms of a collapsed 2008 peace accord-especially the previously proposed boundaries of an autonomous Muslim homeland-would encounter strong opposition from Christian politicians in Mindanao. There will also be difficulties signing an agreement with the National Democratic Front, the umbrella organisation of the Communist Party of the Philippines and its military wing, the National People's Army. Official negotiations resumed in February aimed at ending a rebellion that has lasted for more than 40 years.