Outlook for 2011-15

• The resounding victory won by Benigno Aquino in the May 2010 presidential election suggests that the Philippines is on course for a period of relative political stability.
• Mr Aquino's predecessor, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, will use what influence she still has in Congress (the legislature), the Supreme Court (the upper house) and other bodies to block attempts to investigate her for alleged corruption.
• Government revenue will remain low as a proportion of GDP, and the Economist Intelligence Unit therefore expects the budget to remain in deficit, averaging 2.5% of GDP a year in the forecast period.
• Real GDP grew by 7.3% in 2010, the fastest pace since the mid-1970s, but we forecast that growth will slow to 5.2% in 2011 and then average 5.6% a year in the remainder of the period.
• Inflation will accelerate to 5.3% in 2011, mainly owing to higher oil and non-oil commodity prices, before slowing to an average of 4.6% a year in 2012-15.
• After falling in 2011 in response to a rise in oil imports, the current-account surplus will grow in 2012, before declining again from 2013 onwards. The surplus will be equivalent to 3.2% of GDP on average in the forecast period.

Monthly review

• The House of Representatives (the lower house) has voted to impeach the official ombudsman, Merceditas Gutierrez, a close ally of Ms Macapagal Arroyo, thereby setting the stage for a high-profile trial in the Senate.
• A high-level council comprising members of the executive and the legislature has approved 23 pieces of legislation to be fast-tracked through Congress, but the most significant measures are unlikely to be passed any time soon.
• At its meeting on March 24th the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (the central bank) raised overnight borrowing and lending rates by 25 basis points each. It was the first rate rise since August 2008.
• The government recorded a rare budget surplus in January. The main tax agency, the Bureau of Internal Revenue, exceeded its collection target for the month. Expenditure was lower than planned.
• The unemployment rate edged up slightly in the first quarter of 2011, according to the National Statistics Office. The number of unemployed people stood at 2.9m, equivalent to 7.4% of the 39.2m-strong labour force.
• Merchandise exports rose by 11.8% year on year in January, down from the previous month's expansion of 26.5%, according to the statistics office. Meanwhile, imports rose by 23.9%.