Industrial production in the first two months of 2011 was almost 13% lower than in the same period of 2010, owing to declines in the mechanical and electrical sector (8%), textiles (17%) and mining (23%)-the latter two sectors being low-skilled and vulnerable to absenteeism caused by social unrest. Tourist numbers to the end of March were down by 43%, as a result of cancellations by European tourists. The unrest in Libya will also lead to a sharp downturn in Libyan tourists (about 1.5m a year). The trade and tourism minister, Mehdi Houas, said that 2011 would be "catastrophic" for tourism and that receipts might fall by as much as 50%. This would be a serious blow to the economy because tourism generates some 6% of GDP, employs some 400,000 people and is the biggest single earner of foreign currency. Despite the domestic downturn, foreign trade has continued to be buoyant. Exports in the first two months of the year grew by 9.3% in value, to TD3.7bn (US$2.6bn), compared with the same period of 2010. Exports of mechanical and electrical goods rose by 18%, although exports of textiles fell by 1.7%. Since these figures do not align with the downturn in production, it is likely that in both sectors a significant proportion of the exports came from stock, rather than new production, but the picture will become clearer as data are released for the next two months. Imports in the first two months rose by 2.6% in value, to TD4.6bn. The stockmarket, the Bourse de Tunis, has recovered some of the losses registered in January and February, when it lost over 20% of its value. The TunIndex reached 4,360.7 on April 6th, which was just 14.7% lower than at the start of the year.

According to the Foreign Investment Promotion Agency (FIPA), only 33 of the 3,150 foreign companies in Tunisia have pulled out, with the loss of 2,400 jobs. However, new foreign direct investment has faded, falling by 22% in the first two months of 2011 compared with the same period of 2010. The head of FIPA, Noureddine Zekri, said that the new business environment in Tunisia based on transparency, good governance and anti-corruption will eventually cause confidence to return and lead to greater investment than ever before. For the moment, foreign investors are expected to bide their time, waiting for civil and social unrest to end and for the policies of the next government to become clear. They will want to be assured that the generally investment-friendly policies of the old regime will continue, and that investment and concession deals negotiated under the previous government, especially ones that involved members of Mr Ben Ali's family and close associates, will be honoured. That still cannot be guaranteed, especially if the fragmented political landscape leads to weak governments that have to satisfy the demands of a range of competing constituencies. In that case the steady process of economic liberalisation may slow down or come to a halt.