The Tunisian dinar has remained resilient in spite of the protests, but if the unrest is sustained, it may put downward pressure on the currency. Nevertheless, it is also important to note that we expect a weaker US dollar in 2011 as concerns over the fiscal deficit in the US mount. Full liberalisation of the dinar will occur only after the forecast period. Initially, the dinar will remain pegged to a basket of currencies, of which the euro accounts for around two-thirds. The EU has said that it aims to finalise negotiations on Tunisia's advanced status application by July, which will grant it preferential trade terms. Full currency convertibility will require major reforms to the banking sector. In the interim period, the BCT will take a more flexible approach to exchange-rate management, reducing its interventions in the foreign-exchange market. We expect the dinar to strengthen against the euro for most of the forecast period, from TD1.95:EUR1 at end-2010 to TD1.71:EUR1 at end-2014. The currency will depreciate slightly in 2015, ending the year at TD1.77:EUR1. We expect the dinar to strengthen against the dollar, from TD1.44:US$1 at end-2010 to TD1.37:US$1 at end-2015.