The political landscape is increasingly fractured

More political parties have been legalised, bringing the current total to 53. Few of these parties appear to have clear policies and even fewer have any visibility among the general public. This seems like a recipe for political chaos. In this environment, parties with the best chances of winning votes would seem to be long-established parties from the old "dissident" opposition, such as the Parti démocratique progressiste; those with better-known leaders such as Ahmed Brahim, the leader of the former communist party, Harakat Ettajdid, who stood for the presidency in 2009; or those with an existing, if unquantifiable, base of support, such as the moderate Islamist Hizb al-Nahda. If, as is expected, members of the former ruling party, the Rassemblement constitutionnel démocratique (RCD), come together to form new parties, these could do relatively well in future elections if significant numbers of the old RCD membership (estimated at 2m people) vote for them.

Meanwhile, the government has denied legal status to five parties, including three Islamist parties, As-Salam, the Tunisian Sunni Party and Hizb at-Tahrir; the latter party wants to establish an Islamic state based on sharia (Islamic law) in which other parties would be banned, and does not rule out rebellion or civil disobedience to win power. The three parties were banned on the grounds that they contravene a 1988 law that bans parties based on religious, ethnic, regional or gender grounds, although the use of this particular law, introduced by the ousted president, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, seems to be a matter of political convenience given that the government has already authorised an Islamist party, Hizb al-Nahda, although this may be because the party has said that sharia has no place in Tunisia and has committed itself to the democratic process.