Tunisia faces a period of instability following the ousting of the president, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, in mid-January as a result of a popular uprising. It is unclear whether the third interim government, which was put in place on March 7th, will be able to stem the protests. Although political protests have eased, economic and social unrest is widespread. The interim government has drawn up a "road map to democracy", but recent events cast a shadow over the interim government's commitment to the process. These include the dismissal of the interior minister, Farhat Rajhi, who had been widely praised for disbanding Mr Ben Ali's notorious security apparatus, and the suspension of work by the commission set up to investigate corruption. No reasons have been given for either decision. Steps have been taken to release the state and the economy from the grip of the former ruling party, the Rassemblement constitutionnel démocratique (RCD). The dissolution of the RCD prevents it from putting forward candidates in future elections, but does not bar its members from standing as independents or as representatives of another political party. Indeed, many of these former members have formed their own parties. Many members of Mr Ben Ali's extended family are under arrest and their assets have been sequestered. Former RCD members no longer form part of the government and are being removed steadily from the highest echelons of the civil service, state organisations and state-owned industries. However, most of the RCD members who occupy middle and lower levels of management remain in their posts, although they often face insubordination and recrimination from their non-RCD colleagues.

Much progress has also been made in opening up the democratic process, with 53 legal parties, including Hizb al-Nahda, an Islamist party, now registered to take part in the elections. However, three other Islamist parties have been banned. How to accommodate the popular appeal of Islamism is a problem that has beset regimes across North Africa for some time. In Tunisia, Islamists were conspicuous by their absence during the uprising, a factor that may have played a part in its success, as it deprived Mr Ben Ali of the opportunity to demonise the opposition by accusing it of being a front for al-Qaida-supporting extremists.

The army will continue to play a pivotal role in the Tunisian crisis. So far at least, it seems content to hold the ring for the politicians and to act, in the words of the head of the army, General Rachid Ben Ammar, as "the guarantor of the country, the people and the revolution". The army is likely to maintain this stance unless the security situation deteriorates markedly or the efforts to build a new political consensus collapse.