Country Report Azerbaijan May 2011

The political scene: Opposition groups hold further protests in Baku

The Public Chamber umbrella opposition group held a rally in the capital, Baku, on April 17th. The demonstration was the latest in a series of anti-government protests organised by various opposition groups since the start of 2011 (February and April 2011, The political scene). As in previous protests, the demonstrators called for the resignation of the president, Ilham Aliyev, who has led the country since 2003, following the death of his father, Heydar Aliyev. Demonstrators also chanted "freedom". The Public Chamber had asked the authorities for permission to hold the rally in a central location in Baku. Permission was refused and a location outside of the centre of the capital was proposed as an alternative; the protesters decided to hold the demonstration in line with their original plans. Ahead of the protest the authorities sought to restrict the movements of some of the opposition leaders. In the aftermath of the rally around 65 people were detained, 25 of whom were later released. The protest was the second demonstration organised by the Public Chamber in April. The group had staged an earlier protest in Baku on April 2nd. According to the opposition, around 1,000 people participated in the earlier protest, although officials from the Ministry of Internal Affairs put the number at around 300. At the time of writing, ten members of the Public Chamber rally remain in detention following the earlier rally.

The leader of Musavat (Equality; one of the main opposition parties), Isa Gambar, said that the recent wave of protests have been inspired by the demonstrations in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that led to the overthrow of the authoritarian regimes in Tunisia and Egypt. The opposition plans to hold further protests in the coming weeks. Unsurprisingly, the authorities have been quick to dismiss the impact of the protests on the political sphere. In a statement to the press on April 17th, Siyavush Novruzov-the deputy secretary of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (NAP), led by Mr Aliyev-stated that the number of people participating in the protests had been significantly exaggerated, and claimed that the organisers of the demonstration had given some people money to encourage them to participate.

International organisations have condemned the authorities' reactions to the protests. Amnesty International released a press statement on April 7th calling for the authorities to halt their campaign of "intimidation against opposition leaders that has seen activists detained and allegedly beaten by police". The Economist Intelligence Unit expects tensions between the authorities and opposition groups to remain elevated in the coming months. Currently, the number of demonstrators is small compared with the relative numbers who participated in the protests in the MENA states. In addition, the demonstrations have been concentrated in Baku, limiting the potential for them to pose a wider risk. As such, it seems likely that the protests will not pose a significant threat to regime stability. However, if the government continues to crack down on the protesters, there is a risk that this could backfire and encourage further people to join in the demonstrations, potentially leading to disruptions to the political status quo.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information
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