The authorities appear to have supported the currency in 2009, as the manat remained stable against the US dollar at around Manat0.8:US$1, even though oil prices were lower than in 2008. As a result, foreign reserves fell to a 14-month low of US$4.9bn in July 2009. However, foreign reserves have since recovered to total US$6.8bn in February 2011, above the peak recorded in December 2008, before the impact of the global economic crisis was felt. We expect the currency to remain stable in 2011, at around Manat0.8:US$1. The Central Bank's continuing intervention in the foreign-exchange markets in the initial part of the forecast period will prevent rapid fluctuations in the exchange rate. From 2012 onwards a return of investor risk appetite and higher capital inflows will put the manat on a modest appreciating trend, to Manat0.74:US$1 in 2015.