The opposition is hoping that in the next general election voters in the eastern states of Sabah and Sarawak will give it sufficient parliamentary seats to secure a parliamentary majority. That likelihood appears to be fading, however, partly because of open divisions within the reformist, multicultural Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR, one of the three parties making up the PR alliance), and the actions of the de facto leader of the opposition, Anwar Ibrahim of the PKR. Voters in Sabah and Sarawak have become highly sensitive to interference by mainland politicians, and are much more aware than before of their political leverage and economic power: without the support of members of parliament (MPs) from those two states, the BN government would lack a parliamentary majority. Mr Anwar has upset many local leaders by ignoring their opinions, breaking promises and not respecting local wishes and needs. In the latest development, the PKR branch chief of Sabah state, Pajudin Nordin, left the party on February 5th and joined UMNO, saying that he felt betrayed by Mr Anwar. A former PKR party leader, Jeffrey Kitingan, has formed a new party, the United Borneo Front, with an agenda of political autonomy for Sabah and Sarawak, and is looking for allies. Meanwhile, the Sarawak PKR is being torn apart by factionalism, largely along tribal lines, and is in no position to lead the opposition in the state election, which is to be held by July. Another partner in the opposition PR, the Democratic Action Party (DAP), appears to be better positioned to take advantage of popular resentment of the chief minister of Sarawak, Mahmud Taib, who has ruled the state since 1981.

Since the 2008 general election, the PKR has moved from a position of dominance within the opposition coalition to the role of junior partner, as a result of the decision of a handful of PKR legislators to become independents. On January 30th a contender for the PKR's vice-presidency, N Gobalakrishnan, announced his decision to stand as an independent MP, partly in protest against the PKR leadership elections last year, which he claimed had been rigged. Mr Gobalakrishnan's departure has reduced the number of PKR MPs to 23. This compares with 31 following the 2008 election, and is significantly fewer than the 29 held by the DAP and equals the number held by the PAS.