The ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition retained the parliamentary seat of Tenang, in the southern state of Johor, in a by-election on January 30th. The BN candidate, Mohd Azahar Ibrahim, managed to secure the seat with 3,707 more votes than the opposition candidate. Although this was a larger margin of victory than that achieved by the previous BN candidate at the 2008 general election, it is considerably less than 8,517-vote win achieved by the BN in the constituency at the 2004 poll, prompting some government strategists to argue against calling the next general election early. Underpinning this view is the fact that the BN's share of the non-Malay vote showed only a modest increase compared with the 2008 election. However, the opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) alliance had little success in attracting support from the ethnic-Chinese voting districts in the constituency. Heavy rain and flooding lowered the voter turnout.

The results of the Tenang by-election appear to suggest that the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), the party that controls the ruling coalition, is rebuilding its support (although it is worth noting that Johor is UMNO's birthplace and stronghold). Tenang is a semi-rural constituency, where Malays account for around 48% of eligible voters, Chinese for 38% and Indians for 12%. It is located in a region that has benefited greatly from high commodity prices, especially for palm oil and rubber. Malay and Indian voters were not receptive to an opposition campaign that stressed concerns about rising inflation and subsidy cuts. Following the election, commentators mentioned the apparent lack of interest in politics in the constituency, which contrasted sharply with the keen involvement evident in urban areas, where the opposition alliance tends to do well.

The fact that that ethnic-Chinese support for the BN did not increase, and may even have declined, was probably the most important outcome of the by-election. It suggests that the Malaysian Chinese Alliance, the second-largest party in the BN, still faces a tough battle to regain the support of Chinese voters, many of whom chose to back the opposition PR in the 2008 general election. Regaining a two-thirds parliamentary majority-an objective that is eagerly pursued by the prime minister, Najib Razak-will remain impossible for the BN without an improvement in support from Chinese voters.

The next test for Malaysia's political parties is a by-election on March 6th in Merlimau, in the state of Malacca. Unlike the contest in February, the forthcoming by-election is for a state assembly seat, which was left vacant following the death of the BN's Mohamad Hidhir Abu Hassan. UMNO should have no difficulty retaining the seat, in a constituency where nearly two-thirds of the electorate are Malay. The opposition candidate will be from the Parti Islam se-Malaysia (PAS), which originally considered declining to contest the seat in order to save resources for the next national election.